I just finished reading The Next 100 Years by George Friedman, the founder of STRATFOR, a leading private intelligence and forecasting company. (See www.stratfor.com for analysis of the current geopolitical scene.) Friedman lays out the broad economic, political, and military trends that will shape the twenty-first century. Here is what he had to say about America's foreign and domestic challenges over the next dozen years.
FOREIGN CHALLENGES
America's ultimate aim is to prevent the emergence of any dominant power in Eurasia. Therefore, America will conduct numerous interventions, with the minimum force required, to maintain the Eurasian balance of power. If a regional power threatens to dominate, America will work to thwart or destabilize it.
The current U.S.-Islamist wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are part of this destabilizing effort and are aimed at keeping a large, powerful Islamic state from emerging. America does not need to win such wars. It is sufficient to keep things stirred up and have Islamic countries in conflict with each other. Friedman thinks that American concerns with the Islamic countries will recede over the next dozen years.
U.S.-China relations are always in the news, but Friedman thinks that China will fragment and decline by 2020. The recent Chinese economic growth is unsustainable and will lead to a severe and lengthy business cycle correction, similar to the Japanese economic crisis of the 1990s. Economic problems will lead to political instability. As unemployment rises, Beijing will struggle to balance the interests of the prosperous coastal regions and the poor interior regions.
Russia will use its energy wealth to rebuild its military strength and then push to form a defensive buffer zone on its western border during the next five years. Russia will be anxious to make its move as soon as possible, because its population is declining and it may not be able to field a substantial army in the future. (I noticed an Associate Press article two days ago that stated: "A new study by an international team of public health researchers documents the devastating impact of alcohol abuse on Russia — showing that drinking caused more than half of deaths among Russians aged 15 to 54 in the turbulent era following the Soviet collapse. The 52 percent figure compares to estimates that less than 4 percent of deaths worldwide are caused by alcohol abuse, according to the study by Russian, British and French researchers published in Friday's edition of the British medical journal The Lancet.")
A partial restoration of the old Soviet sphere of influence will soon occur as Belarus and Ukraine are brought back under Russia control. Russia's re-emergence as a regional power will alarm the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and Poland, which are now members of NATO. America will provide aid and military technology to these Eastern Europe countries to help them resist the Russian pressure. The Russians will counter this by leaning on Germany. Germany, dependent on Russian natural gas, will impede any coordinated NATO response. A new Cold War will begin. However, Friedman thinks that the Russians will be unable to sustain their activities and that their military will collapse by 2020.
With both China and Russia in crisis by 2020, new regional powers within Eurasia will rise to prominence. Friedman thinks that Turkey and Japan will expand their military power. Poland, fortified by military technology received from America during the conflict with Russia, will also become a regional power. Peering deeper into his crystal ball, Friedman forecasts a world war between America and the coalition of Japan and Turkey by 2050.
DOMESTIC CHALLENGES
Friedman sees demographics driving most of America's domestic challenges. By 2020 America will have a labor shortage and need to increase immigration. This will lead to social tensions and set the stage for future conflicts with Mexico as the population of the Southwestern states becomes predominantly Hispanic.
By 2020, a large group of the Baby Boomers will have entered their seventies. Most affluent Baby Boomers will fund their retirements by cashing in their stock and real estate. In particular, 401K retirement plans require that distributions start at age seventy and a half. But the succeeding generation of workers (i.e., my sons' generation) will be smaller and will not be able to afford all this stock and real estate. Stock and real estate prices will tumble.
Improvident Baby Boomers with no retirement savings whatsoever will need to be cared for somehow. Taxes will surely skyrocket.
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George Friedman's weekly geopolitical analysis articles on his STRATFOR website always strike me as thoughtful and balanced. It was disconcerting to find him forecasting so many world conflicts and calamities between now and 2020. And I'm sure we can expect a few pandemics, hurricanes, and terrorist attacks as well. It is easy to feel overwhelmed when thinking about all these dangers.
The New Testament warns against falling under the oppression of "the cares of this world." I probably subject myself to needless anxiety as a result of my curiosity about emerging geopolitical trends.
